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If heat pump paybacks were easy to calculate, every decarbonization advocate and HVAC marketing department in the US would be shouting it from the rooftops. It turns out that it&#;s actually really difficult&#;and that&#;s why this article includes a bunch of guidelines and examples, instead of a calculator. There are just too many unknowns with installation costs, infrastructure upgrades, and constantly shifting energy prices.
All that said, here&#;s how you kind of, sort of try to estimate the potential return on investment.
1. Estimate the cost of installation
You can use our guides to heat pump costs and mini-split costs to get a sense of what it could be for a home like yours. Bonus points if you can estimate what heat pump size you&#;ll need, because that affects the cost a bit as well.
So how does the cost of a heat pump installation compare to other kinds of HVAC? There&#;s a dearth of reliable, trustworthy data out there. Wholesale prices tell you part of the story, but labor costs are a different matter.
We&#;ve heard plenty of anecdotes, and they tend to be in a similar ballpark across all kinds of HVAC&#;roughly between $10,000 and $17,000. An average heat pump is closer to the higher end of that estimate. And there are tons of nuances and exceptions. Whole-house mini splits are probably going to cost more than a simple boiler swap, for example, but less than a boiler swap plus a new central AC build-out. If you need to upgrade your ducts, electrical, or insulation to support a full heat pump conversion, that&#;ll drive up the cost relative to staying on a fossil fuel system, too.
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So, you&#;ll either have to get competing quotes to see how they compare to heat pumps&#;or just rely on some rules of thumb.
Estimate the cost of operation
There are a bunch of ways to try to do this, and none are perfectly precise, but we&#;ll share a couple that we think are pretty good.
A quick reference on EnergySage: Check our guide to heat pump energy use, based on our analysis of data from the Department of Energy. It lets you look at how much energy a house like yours in a climate like yours tends to use for heating and cooling. You can look at general estimates, or per-square-foot estimates.
A more detailed calculator: There are quite a few out there, but for heating our favorite is from Efficiency Maine, and for cooling it&#;s this simple SEER Energy Savings page. You&#;ll need a decent estimate for how much you spent on heating and cooling over the past year or three, the efficiency ratings for your current HVAC equipment, and how much you&#;re currently paying for electricity, and whatever other fuel you use for heating.
The cooling calculator is simple: You punch in the new SEER2 rating (probably around 16, for an inverter-driven model) and the SEER rating for your old system (10 or 13 are both common, depending on how old they are). It&#;ll tell you a savings percentage, and you can just divide that into whatever you typically spend on cooling.
One catch here: Some high-efficiency heat pumps aren&#;t so great at dehumidification, so it&#;s possible during the fall and spring that you&#;ll want to run the heat pump on Dry mode (if it has one), or use a supplemental dehumidifier. Those will both eat away at the predicted savings, but you&#;ll still pay a lot less overall. And this mostly matters in the South, where the humidity is brutal for long stretches of the year. It doesn&#;t matter at all out West.
The heating calculator is basically the same idea, though it lets you tinker with the equipment efficiencies, ductwork leakage, and more. The trickiest part is separating out your actual heating costs from the background costs for hot water, cooking, and clothes drying, if they all use the same fuel as your heater.
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